Is Watchmen Going To Be A Flop?

 

Over the last six months or so, we've been inundated with marketing for The Watchmen.  We've seen multiple trailers, TV spots, posters and toys.  The actors have been on just about every channel and in every newspaper pushing the film.  The Watchmen graphic novel has been in every retail store imaginable, even including such typically non comic book friendly locations such at Target or Costco.  The Warner Brothers marketing department has been working overtime pushing the films name into as many different locations as possible.  They've been doing their best to make the world aware that the film was coming out, and that everyone and all of their friends need to go see it.

 

But has it worked?  Well, let's look at the figures.

 

The opening weekend box office figures are in, and the Watchmen raked in $55.7 million in it's first three days.  Not the great opening WB was hoping for, I'm sure.  While it's true that this is one of the best opening weekends ever for a rated R film, as a blockbuster comic book film, that's not really a lot of money at all. 

 

Let's give that figure some perspective.  With it's opening weekend amount of $55.7 million, that makes Watchmen the 12th highest opening weekend for a comic book movie ever.  That's right...12th.  Wanna know who's #11 on that list?  The Fantastic Four.  Yes, you are reading that right.  Your eyes are not deceiving you.  The gigantic steaming crapfest that was the Fantastic Four movie (complete with it's incredibly lame makeup for The Thing) made more money on it's opening weekend than the Watchmen did. 

 

Somewhere deep in a dark cave, Alan Moore is laughing while stroking his mangy beard in true supervillain fashion.

 

Will Watchmen flop though?  The film cost $150 million to make.  Plus there was that costly legal battle with Fox over the rights (who are getting a cut of the film's profits too), and let's not forget that massive marketing budget too.  It's probably more than likely the film has cost the WB well over $200 million to bring to theaters.  So on it's opening weekend, Watchmen has only made a quarter of its production budget back.  Can it make another $150 million just so it can break even?

 

The true test will be this weekend I suppose.  How many of those die hard comic book fans are going to go see the film again and again and again?  How will word of mouth reviews fare with the general mainstream audience?  Will the Watchmen gain more viewers if the word of mouth is good, or will casual movie goers give the film a pass if word of mouth is poor and everyone they know is telling them the film sucks? 

 

My personal opinion is the latter.  As much as I loved the film, and as much as I want it to succeed, I'm convinced based on what I've been reading online that this film is only really being enjoyed by fans of comic books.  General audiences on the whole aren't too into it, and let's be honest folks, there aren't enough die hard comic fans out there to earn this film another $150 million.  I predict that this weekend will see a significant fall of in viewers from last weekend, and Watchmen will be lucky to pull in another $25 million. 

 

Will the film eventually be a success?  I think it will, but it will only be once you include worldwide ticket sales mixed with the upcoming DVD releases over the rest of the year.  Plus all of the toys and other merchandise the film is sure to sell too.  As for a domestic US film run though, I think the WB isn't going to be seeing another Dark Knight style smashing success like they were most likely hoping for.